7+ days — read the spread, not the run

Past about a week, a single model run is one plausible future among many, and the honest question stops being “how much snow” and becomes “how many of the possible futures give me a good week”. Everything on this page answers the second question. There is deliberately no deterministic chart here — those live in 3–7 days.

Share of ensemble members reaching each snowfall total at the model grid point — not a resort forecast.

Synoptic maps — ECMWF ENS vs GEFS → The pattern behind these numbers: matched MSLP, 500 hPa height, 850 hPa temperature, precipitation, wind and ensemble spread, as a 120–240 h loop.
How to read this

Grid point, not resort. Every system is sampled at its own native grid cell, at the model's terrain height — not at a lift, village or snow stake. Those cells are not the same size: most are ~25 km, but GEPS runs on a ~50 km grid, coarse enough that adjacent resorts routinely share one cell. Each panel states its own grid beside the member count, and the coarsest one carries a badge. The 2 m temperature plumes are raw model-grid temperature: not a resort-elevation temperature, not a wet-bulb temperature and not a snow level. Elevation-specific temperature and precipitation phase live in 3–7 days.

Provider snowfall. Every total is the provider's own snowfall variable accumulated across a member's series, in centimetres. It is not a settled-depth forecast, and nothing here is combined into a consensus between systems.

The comparison window is the denominator. The systems can run to different horizons. In the common window all are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentage, median and spread is recomputed over that shared period, so adjacent numbers answer the same question. Under full horizons each runs to its own end and totals between systems are not comparable. All charts share one time scale, so a shorter system simply draws a shorter plot and the gap on its right is the horizon difference.

Tint and strips. In the summary table the tint behind a percentage is that percentage on a fixed 0–100% scale — never a ranking against the other resorts — and the percentage itself is printed in every cell, so the colour is reinforcement rather than the encoding. Every spread strip is drawn on one shared centimetre scale within a window, read against the axis in the column heading.

Percentiles need members. A timestep with fewer than three reporting members yields no percentile at all rather than a thin one, and a member that misses an interval drops out of every total after it instead of freezing at its last value.

Show NSW VIC
Ensembles
Compare over

Common window · through Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST — every percentage, median and spread below is accumulated over this shared period, so the systems answer the same question. ECMWF IFS ENS runs 5 days further; that part is excluded here and shown under Full horizons.

Full horizons — each system accumulates to its own valid-through, so the totals are not comparable between rows. ECMWF IFS ENS through Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST ECMWF AIFS ENS through Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST GEFS through Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST GEPS through Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Grid styles are a fixed print look — palette and dark mode do not apply inside them.
All resorts — ensemble snowfall outlook ≥5 cm · ≥15 cm · ≥30 cm and percentile spread, all systems · common window through Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST
Share of ensemble members reaching each snowfall total at the model grid point — not a resort forecast. ECMWF IFS ENS 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km ECMWF AIFS ENS 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km GEFS 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km GEPS 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km
Resort Ensemble ≥5 cm by Wed, 12 Aug ≥15 cm by Wed, 12 Aug ≥30 cm by Wed, 12 Aug Middle half cm 10th–90th cm Spread cm, shared scale
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, ECMWF IFS ENS stops short — through 17 Aug, 09:00 73% 33% 8% 4–18 3–22
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, ECMWF AIFS ENS stops short — through 17 Aug, 09:00 41% 10% 0% 3–9 1–12
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, GEFS error — — — — — —
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, GEPS stops short — through 17 Aug, 09:00 5% 0% 0% 0–1 0–2
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, ECMWF IFS ENS stops short — through 17 Aug, 09:00 98% 78% 49% 16–41 13–58
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, ECMWF AIFS ENS error — — — — — —
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, GEFS error — — — — — —
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, GEPS stops short — through 17 Aug, 09:00 5% 0% 0% 0–1 0–2
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass: systems diverge Charlotte Pass, ECMWF IFS ENS 90% 59% 24% 12–29 6–41
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass: systems diverge Charlotte Pass, ECMWF AIFS ENS 59% 10% 2% 4–11 2–15
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass: systems diverge Charlotte Pass, GEFS 45% 6% 0% 2–6 2–10
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass: systems diverge Charlotte Pass, GEPS 0% 0% 0% 0–0 0–1
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn: systems diverge Selwyn, ECMWF IFS ENS 49% 12% 2% 1–8 0–17
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn: systems diverge Selwyn, ECMWF AIFS ENS 31% 8% 0% 1–6 0–14
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn: systems diverge Selwyn, GEFS 58% 13% 3% 3–10 2–17
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn: systems diverge Selwyn, GEPS 10% 0% 0% 1–3 0–4
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham: systems diverge Mt Hotham, ECMWF IFS ENS 94% 61% 24% 10–29 7–41
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham: systems diverge Mt Hotham, ECMWF AIFS ENS 67% 24% 4% 5–14 3–20
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham: systems diverge Mt Hotham, GEFS 32% 10% 0% 3–7 2–12
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham: systems diverge Mt Hotham, GEPS 24% 5% 0% 1–4 0–9
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek: systems diverge Falls Creek, ECMWF IFS ENS 63% 24% 8% 3–14 1–27
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek: systems diverge Falls Creek, ECMWF AIFS ENS 35% 2% 2% 2–7 1–10
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek: systems diverge Falls Creek, GEFS 19% 3% 0% 1–4 1–9
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek: systems diverge Falls Creek, GEPS 0% 0% 0% 0–0 0–0
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller: systems diverge Mt Buller, ECMWF IFS ENS 65% 24% 10% 4–14 1–28
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller: systems diverge Mt Buller, ECMWF AIFS ENS 51% 8% 2% 3–8 2–14
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller: systems diverge Mt Buller, GEFS 32% 3% 0% 2–7 1–11
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller: systems diverge Mt Buller, GEPS 0% 0% 0% 0–0 0–0
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw: systems diverge Mt Baw Baw, ECMWF IFS ENS 27% 12% 0% 1–6 0–15
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw: systems diverge Mt Baw Baw, ECMWF AIFS ENS 12% 0% 0% 0–3 0–6
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw: systems diverge Mt Baw Baw, GEFS 6% 0% 0% 0–2 0–3
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw: systems diverge Mt Baw Baw, GEPS 0% 0% 0% 0–0 0–0
All resorts — ensemble snowfall outlook ≥5 cm · ≥15 cm · ≥30 cm and percentile spread, all systems
Share of ensemble members reaching each snowfall total at the model grid point — not a resort forecast. ECMWF IFS ENS 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km through 17 Aug, 09:00 ECMWF AIFS ENS 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km horizon varies by resort — shown on each row GEFS 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km horizon varies by resort — shown on each row GEPS 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km through 17 Aug, 09:00
Resort Ensemble ≥5 cm ≥15 cm ≥30 cm Middle half cm 10th–90th cm Spread cm, shared scale
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 73% 33% 8% 4–18 3–22
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 41% 10% 0% 3–9 1–12
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, GEFS error no usable horizon — — — — — —
Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m Perisher, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 5% 0% 0% 0–1 0–2
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 98% 78% 49% 16–41 13–58
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, ECMWF AIFS ENS error no usable horizon — — — — — —
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, GEFS error no usable horizon — — — — — —
Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m Thredbo, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 5% 0% 0% 0–1 0–2
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 98% 78% 49% 16–41 13–58
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 96% 39% 10% 8–20 5–29
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass, GEFS through 12 Aug, 16:00 45% 6% 0% 2–6 2–10
Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m Charlotte Pass, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 5% 0% 0% 0–1 0–2
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 71% 29% 6% 4–17 1–24
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 57% 27% 8% 2–17 2–23
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn, GEFS through 12 Aug, 16:00 58% 13% 3% 3–10 2–17
Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m Selwyn, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 29% 0% 0% 1–5 1–10
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 98% 75% 39% 15–40 11–55
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 90% 47% 18% 10–24 5–34
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham, GEFS through 12 Aug, 16:00 32% 10% 0% 3–7 2–12
Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m Mt Hotham, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 33% 14% 5% 1–8 1–16
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 82% 39% 18% 6–24 4–33
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 55% 24% 8% 4–13 2–21
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek, GEFS through 12 Aug, 16:00 19% 3% 0% 1–4 1–9
Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m Falls Creek, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 0% 0% 0% 0–0 0–1
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 80% 39% 18% 7–25 4–33
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 82% 31% 12% 5–18 4–30
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller, GEFS through 12 Aug, 16:00 32% 3% 0% 2–7 1–11
Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m Mt Buller, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 5% 0% 0% 0–0 0–2
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw, ECMWF IFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 49% 20% 4% 2–12 0–21
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw, ECMWF AIFS ENS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 51% 14% 2% 1–12 0–16
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw, GEFS through 12 Aug, 16:00 6% 0% 0% 0–2 0–3
Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m Mt Baw Baw, GEPS through 17 Aug, 09:00 (+5 days on GEFS) 0% 0% 0% 0–0 0–0

Perisher NSW · 1605–2042 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. All panels for Perisher →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Perisher · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Perisher ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 4–18 cm · 10th–90th 3–22 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 4 to 18 cm, with a full spread of 3 to 22 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 22 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
73% reach 5 cm
33% reach 15 cm
8% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.0 to 7.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.8 to 7.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.7 to 8.5.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0255% 08-038% 08-044% 08-050% 08-062% 08-0727% 08-0892% 08-0947% 08-1039% 08-1173% 08-1275% 08-1337% 08-1424% 08-1512% 08-162% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Perisher · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Perisher ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 3–9 cm · 10th–90th 1–12 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 9 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 12 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 2 of them pass above the 22 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
41% reach 5 cm
10% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.5 to 7.9 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.2 to 6.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.5 to 7.9.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-024% 08-0324% 08-0439% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0724% 08-0888% 08-0939% 08-1018% 08-1171% 08-1273% 08-1365% 08-1431% 08-1516% 08-1614% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Perisher · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Fetch failed

We could not reach the provider. This is our problem, not the model’s. (upstream 429)

Cumulative snowfall Perisher GEFS no usable coverage

The ensemble returned no usable spread for this point.

Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. No variable has usable member coverage.. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Perisher · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Perisher GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 0–1 cm · 10th–90th 0–2 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 1 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 2 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
5% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.4 to 6.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.7 to 6.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.4 to 7.5.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-020% 08-030% 08-0410% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0719% 08-0895% 08-0938% 08-1014% 08-1152% 08-1257% 08-1333% 08-1433% 08-1514% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Thredbo NSW · 1365–2037 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. All panels for Thredbo →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Thredbo · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Thredbo ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 16–41 cm · 10th–90th 13–58 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 16 to 41 cm, with a full spread of 13 to 58 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 58 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
98% reach 5 cm
78% reach 15 cm
49% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 4.5 to 4.7 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.5 to 5.4, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.1 to 6.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0294% 08-03100% 08-0486% 08-050% 08-066% 08-0727% 08-0894% 08-0961% 08-1053% 08-1180% 08-1282% 08-1351% 08-1427% 08-1527% 08-168% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Thredbo · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Fetch failed

We could not reach the provider. This is our problem, not the model’s. (upstream 429)

Cumulative snowfall Thredbo ECMWF AIFS ENS no usable coverage

The ensemble returned no usable spread for this point.

Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. No variable has usable member coverage.. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Thredbo · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Fetch failed

We could not reach the provider. This is our problem, not the model’s. (upstream 429)

Cumulative snowfall Thredbo GEFS no usable coverage

The ensemble returned no usable spread for this point.

Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. No variable has usable member coverage.. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Thredbo · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Thredbo GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 0–1 cm · 10th–90th 0–2 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 1 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 2 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
5% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.4 to 6.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.7 to 6.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.4 to 7.5.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-020% 08-030% 08-0410% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0719% 08-0895% 08-0938% 08-1014% 08-1152% 08-1257% 08-1333% 08-1433% 08-1514% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Charlotte Pass NSW · 1755–1964 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. Over the shared window: systems diverge All panels for Charlotte Pass →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Charlotte Pass · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 12–29 cm · 10th–90th 6–41 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 12 to 29 cm, with a full spread of 6 to 41 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 41 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
90% reach 5 cm
59% reach 15 cm
24% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 4.5 to 4.7 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 0.7 to 4.7, with a 10th-to-90th spread of -0.5 to 6.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 16–41 cm · 10th–90th 13–58 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 16 to 41 cm, with a full spread of 13 to 58 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 58 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
98% reach 5 cm
78% reach 15 cm
49% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 4.5 to 4.7 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.5 to 5.4, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.1 to 6.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0294% 08-03100% 08-0486% 08-050% 08-066% 08-0727% 08-0894% 08-0961% 08-1053% 08-1180% 08-1282% 08-1351% 08-1427% 08-1527% 08-168% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Charlotte Pass · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 4–11 cm · 10th–90th 2–15 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 4 to 11 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 15 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
59% reach 5 cm
10% reach 15 cm
2% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.7 to 6.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.8 to 9.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.0 to 10.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 8–20 cm · 10th–90th 5–29 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 8 to 20 cm, with a full spread of 5 to 29 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
96% reach 5 cm
39% reach 15 cm
10% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.7 to 6.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.6 to 6.3, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.5 to 7.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0231% 08-0378% 08-0475% 08-052% 08-060% 08-0739% 08-0894% 08-0945% 08-1029% 08-1180% 08-1286% 08-1373% 08-1445% 08-1529% 08-1614% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Charlotte Pass · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 2–6 cm · 10th–90th 2–10 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 6 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 10 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
45% reach 5 cm
6% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.4 to 5.6 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 1.7 to 6.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 0.6 to 8.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 2–6 cm · 10th–90th 2–10 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 6 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 10 cm. The chart is drawn on the time scale shared with the other system, so it ends short of the full width where this system stops reporting. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
45% reach 5 cm
6% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.4 to 5.6 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 1.8 to 6.4, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 0.6 to 8.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-023% 08-0394% 08-0465% 08-050% 08-063% 08-070% 08-0887% 08-0984% 08-1039% 08-1161% 08-12
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Charlotte Pass · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–1 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 1 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
0% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.4 to 6.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.2 to 8.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.4 to 9.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Charlotte Pass GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 0–1 cm · 10th–90th 0–2 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 1 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 2 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
5% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.4 to 6.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.7 to 6.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.4 to 7.5.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-020% 08-030% 08-0410% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0719% 08-0895% 08-0938% 08-1014% 08-1152% 08-1257% 08-1333% 08-1433% 08-1514% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Selwyn NSW · 1492–1614 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. Over the shared window: systems diverge All panels for Selwyn →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Selwyn · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–8 cm · 10th–90th 0–17 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 8 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 17 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 17 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
49% reach 5 cm
12% reach 15 cm
2% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.7 to 7.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.2 to 7.0, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.1 to 9.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 4–17 cm · 10th–90th 1–24 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 4 to 17 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 24 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 24 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
71% reach 5 cm
29% reach 15 cm
6% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.7 to 7.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 5.3 to 7.4, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 4.1 to 8.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0222% 08-0378% 08-0467% 08-052% 08-060% 08-0725% 08-0892% 08-0949% 08-1045% 08-1178% 08-1280% 08-1355% 08-1425% 08-1516% 08-162% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Selwyn · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–6 cm · 10th–90th 0–14 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 6 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 14 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 3 of them pass above the 17 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
31% reach 5 cm
8% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.2 to 7.4 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.1 to 10.2, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.3 to 11.2.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 2–17 cm · 10th–90th 2–23 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 17 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 23 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 24 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
57% reach 5 cm
27% reach 15 cm
8% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.2 to 7.4 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.0 to 6.7, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.0 to 7.9.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0210% 08-0349% 08-0443% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0741% 08-0892% 08-0943% 08-1025% 08-1176% 08-1280% 08-1369% 08-1437% 08-1525% 08-1614% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Selwyn · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 3–10 cm · 10th–90th 2–17 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 10 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 17 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 3 of them pass above the 17 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
58% reach 5 cm
13% reach 15 cm
3% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.0 to 7.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 0.9 to 6.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of -0.4 to 8.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 3–10 cm · 10th–90th 2–17 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 10 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 17 cm. The chart is drawn on the time scale shared with the other system, so it ends short of the full width where this system stops reporting. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 2 of them pass above the 24 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
58% reach 5 cm
13% reach 15 cm
3% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.0 to 7.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 0.8 to 6.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of -0.3 to 8.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-020% 08-0381% 08-0448% 08-050% 08-060% 08-070% 08-0887% 08-0981% 08-1026% 08-1161% 08-12
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Selwyn · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–3 cm · 10th–90th 0–4 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 3 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 4 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
10% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.6 to 6.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 1.5 to 6.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 0.5 to 7.0.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Selwyn GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 1–5 cm · 10th–90th 1–10 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 5 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 10 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
29% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 5.6 to 6.0 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.0 to 6.0, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.7 to 6.6.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-020% 08-030% 08-045% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0733% 08-0895% 08-0952% 08-1033% 08-1157% 08-1248% 08-1329% 08-1433% 08-1514% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Mt Hotham VIC · 1450–1845 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. Over the shared window: systems diverge All panels for Mt Hotham →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Mt Hotham · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 10–29 cm · 10th–90th 7–41 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 10 to 29 cm, with a full spread of 7 to 41 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 41 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
94% reach 5 cm
61% reach 15 cm
24% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 4.9 to 5.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 0.5 to 4.1, with a 10th-to-90th spread of -0.7 to 5.9.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 15–40 cm · 10th–90th 11–55 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 15 to 40 cm, with a full spread of 11 to 55 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 55 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
98% reach 5 cm
75% reach 15 cm
39% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 4.9 to 5.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.2 to 5.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.5 to 6.2.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0265% 08-0396% 08-0451% 08-050% 08-062% 08-0747% 08-0898% 08-0955% 08-1053% 08-1178% 08-1278% 08-1351% 08-1425% 08-1516% 08-168% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Mt Hotham · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 5–14 cm · 10th–90th 3–20 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 5 to 14 cm, with a full spread of 3 to 20 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 1 of them pass above the 41 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
67% reach 5 cm
24% reach 15 cm
4% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.6 to 6.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 2.6 to 7.3, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 0.7 to 9.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 10–24 cm · 10th–90th 5–34 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 10 to 24 cm, with a full spread of 5 to 34 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 1 of them pass above the 55 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
90% reach 5 cm
47% reach 15 cm
18% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.6 to 6.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.0 to 5.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.6 to 6.9.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0259% 08-0396% 08-0463% 08-052% 08-060% 08-0755% 08-0894% 08-0943% 08-1037% 08-1180% 08-1282% 08-1373% 08-1447% 08-1525% 08-1610% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Mt Hotham · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 3–7 cm · 10th–90th 2–12 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 7 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 12 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
32% reach 5 cm
10% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.7 to 6.9 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 1.8 to 6.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 0.8 to 7.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 3–7 cm · 10th–90th 2–12 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 7 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 12 cm. The chart is drawn on the time scale shared with the other system, so it ends short of the full width where this system stops reporting. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
32% reach 5 cm
10% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.7 to 6.9 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 1.9 to 6.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 0.7 to 7.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0229% 08-03100% 08-0468% 08-050% 08-066% 08-0710% 08-0890% 08-0984% 08-1045% 08-1165% 08-12
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Mt Hotham · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–4 cm · 10th–90th 0–9 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 4 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 9 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 20 40 cm
24% reach 5 cm
5% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.2 to 7.4 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 2.8 to 6.9, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.1 to 8.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Hotham GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 1–8 cm · 10th–90th 1–16 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 8 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 16 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 20 40 cm
33% reach 5 cm
14% reach 15 cm
5% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.2 to 7.4 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 5.1 to 6.7, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.2 to 7.5.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0243% 08-0386% 08-0438% 08-055% 08-065% 08-0776% 08-08100% 08-0967% 08-1057% 08-1171% 08-1262% 08-1348% 08-1452% 08-1524% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Falls Creek VIC · 1500–1780 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. Over the shared window: systems diverge All panels for Falls Creek →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Falls Creek · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 3–14 cm · 10th–90th 1–27 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 14 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 27 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 27 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
63% reach 5 cm
24% reach 15 cm
8% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.0 to 7.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 2.5 to 6.7, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.2 to 7.6.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 6–24 cm · 10th–90th 4–33 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 6 to 24 cm, with a full spread of 4 to 33 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 33 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 30 cm
82% reach 5 cm
39% reach 15 cm
18% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.0 to 7.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 5.1 to 7.1, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.7 to 7.9.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0290% 08-03100% 08-0484% 08-056% 08-066% 08-0747% 08-08100% 08-0967% 08-1057% 08-1180% 08-1282% 08-1359% 08-1427% 08-1527% 08-1612% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Falls Creek · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 2–7 cm · 10th–90th 1–10 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 7 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 10 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 1 of them pass above the 27 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
35% reach 5 cm
2% reach 15 cm
2% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.8 to 8.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.6 to 9.0, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.9 to 11.6.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 4–13 cm · 10th–90th 2–21 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 4 to 13 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 21 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 3 of them pass above the 33 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 30 cm
55% reach 5 cm
24% reach 15 cm
8% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.8 to 8.2 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.8 to 6.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.9 to 8.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0257% 08-03100% 08-0471% 08-052% 08-060% 08-0763% 08-0896% 08-0947% 08-1041% 08-1184% 08-1282% 08-1376% 08-1439% 08-1524% 08-1612% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Falls Creek · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–4 cm · 10th–90th 1–9 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 4 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 9 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
19% reach 5 cm
3% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.4 to 7.9 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.0 to 7.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.9 to 8.6.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–4 cm · 10th–90th 1–9 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 4 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 9 cm. The chart is drawn on the time scale shared with the other system, so it ends short of the full width where this system stops reporting. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 30 cm
19% reach 5 cm
3% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.4 to 7.9 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.0 to 7.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.9 to 8.4.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0268% 08-03100% 08-0461% 08-053% 08-060% 08-0716% 08-0890% 08-0990% 08-1052% 08-1165% 08-12
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Falls Creek · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–0 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 0 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
0% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.9 to 7.5 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.1 to 7.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.6 to 9.6.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Falls Creek GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–1 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 1 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 30 cm
0% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 6.9 to 7.5 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.2 to 6.1, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.4 to 6.5.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-020% 08-0314% 08-0410% 08-050% 08-060% 08-0738% 08-0886% 08-0948% 08-1019% 08-1162% 08-1262% 08-1333% 08-1429% 08-1519% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Mt Buller VIC · 1375–1780 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. Over the shared window: systems diverge All panels for Mt Buller →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Mt Buller · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 4–14 cm · 10th–90th 1–28 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 4 to 14 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 28 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 28 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
65% reach 5 cm
24% reach 15 cm
10% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.1 to 7.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 2.0 to 6.0, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.1 to 7.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 7–25 cm · 10th–90th 4–33 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 7 to 25 cm, with a full spread of 4 to 33 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 33 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 30 cm
80% reach 5 cm
39% reach 15 cm
18% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.1 to 7.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.3 to 7.2, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.5 to 8.0.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-02100% 08-03100% 08-0484% 08-058% 08-0610% 08-0757% 08-0894% 08-0973% 08-1057% 08-1180% 08-1284% 08-1363% 08-1439% 08-1525% 08-168% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Mt Buller · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 3–8 cm · 10th–90th 2–14 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 3 to 8 cm, with a full spread of 2 to 14 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 1 of them pass above the 28 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
51% reach 5 cm
8% reach 15 cm
2% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.2 to 8.5 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.7 to 8.6, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.2 to 10.7.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 5–18 cm · 10th–90th 4–30 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 5 to 18 cm, with a full spread of 4 to 30 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 4 of them pass above the 33 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 30 cm
82% reach 5 cm
31% reach 15 cm
12% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.2 to 8.5 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.2 to 6.4, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.2 to 7.8.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0282% 08-03100% 08-0476% 08-052% 08-060% 08-0775% 08-0894% 08-0949% 08-1045% 08-1186% 08-1286% 08-1378% 08-1447% 08-1531% 08-1614% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Mt Buller · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 2–7 cm · 10th–90th 1–11 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 7 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 11 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
32% reach 5 cm
3% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.1 to 8.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 2.4 to 6.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.5 to 7.8.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 2–7 cm · 10th–90th 1–11 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 7 cm, with a full spread of 1 to 11 cm. The chart is drawn on the time scale shared with the other system, so it ends short of the full width where this system stops reporting. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 30 cm
32% reach 5 cm
3% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.1 to 8.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 2.5 to 6.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.5 to 7.7.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0290% 08-03100% 08-0484% 08-053% 08-0613% 08-0713% 08-0894% 08-0984% 08-1055% 08-1171% 08-12
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Mt Buller · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–0 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 0 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
0% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.4 to 7.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.1 to 7.9, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.5 to 9.6.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12-50510 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Buller GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–2 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 2 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 30 cm
5% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 7.4 to 7.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 5.6 to 7.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 4.7 to 8.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17-50510 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0267% 08-0390% 08-0429% 08-055% 08-065% 08-0786% 08-08100% 08-0971% 08-1062% 08-1171% 08-1271% 08-1348% 08-1452% 08-1524% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECCC GEPS — © Environment and Climate Change Canada

Mt Baw Baw VIC · 1450–1564 m

Separate ensemble perspectives; none is combined into a consensus forecast. Over the shared window: systems diverge All panels for Mt Baw Baw →

10th–90th 25th–75th median members, when shown weekend

ECMWF IFS ENS

Mt Baw Baw · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 1–6 cm · 10th–90th 0–15 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 6 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 15 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 15 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
27% reach 5 cm
12% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.1 to 8.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 3.5 to 7.2, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 1.7 to 8.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw ECMWF IFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 2–12 cm · 10th–90th 0–21 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 2 to 12 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 21 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 5 of them pass above the 21 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
49% reach 5 cm
20% reach 15 cm
4% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF IFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.1 to 8.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.7 to 7.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 4.0 to 8.2.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0298% 08-03100% 08-0494% 08-0522% 08-066% 08-0769% 08-0898% 08-0961% 08-1057% 08-1182% 08-1280% 08-1375% 08-1453% 08-1533% 08-166% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF IFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • ECMWF publishes its long ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF ENS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

ECMWF AIFS ENS

Mt Baw Baw · 51 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–3 cm · 10th–90th 0–6 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 3 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 6 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
12% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 9.2 to 9.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 5.2 to 9.9, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 4.0 to 11.2.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw ECMWF AIFS ENS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 1–12 cm · 10th–90th 0–16 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 1 to 12 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 16 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 51 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. When those lines are drawn, 4 of them pass above the 21 centimetre axis top and are faded out at it rather than ending there. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
51% reach 5 cm
14% reach 15 cm
2% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 51 ECMWF AIFS ENS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the ECMWF AIFS ENS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 9.2 to 9.3 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 5.0 to 7.1, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 3.7 to 8.9.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0294% 08-0398% 08-0498% 08-0512% 08-064% 08-0757% 08-0894% 08-0945% 08-1035% 08-1188% 08-1288% 08-1384% 08-1471% 08-1543% 08-1620% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • ECMWF AIFS 0.25° ENS has 51 members and a 15-day, 6-hourly native source horizon; Open-Meteo interpolates the requested point series to hourly.
  • Provider snowfall is at the native model grid point. It is not snowfall at 1500 m, resort elevation or a physical snowpack depth.
  • No member-level pressure profiles are used or implied, so this cannot produce elevation-specific precipitation-phase probabilities.
  • ECMWF publishes its long AIFS ENS runs off 00Z and 12Z, so the newest available run is routinely more than six hours old without anything being wrong.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0

GEFS

Mt Baw Baw · 31 members · 0.25° ≈25 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–2 cm · 10th–90th 0–3 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 2 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 3 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
6% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.6 to 8.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.4 to 7.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.6 to 9.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw GEFS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–2 cm · 10th–90th 0–3 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 31 GEFS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 2 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 3 cm. The chart is drawn on the time scale shared with the other system, so it ends short of the full width where this system stops reporting. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 31 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 10 20 cm
6% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 31 GEFS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEFS 0.25° ≈25 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T08:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.6 to 8.8 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 4.4 to 7.8, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 2.6 to 9.1.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0239% 08-0397% 08-0497% 08-053% 08-0616% 08-073% 08-0890% 08-0977% 08-1035% 08-1168% 08-12
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 18:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Wed, 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.25° grid (about 25 km); point values are not resort-scale terrain forecasts.
  • GEFS 0.25° has 31 members and a 10-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.

Model run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Each ensemble system runs many slightly different versions of its own forecast to sample how sensitive its outcome is to what we do not know about today. Each band above is a percentile range across those members: the 10th–90th is where four in five members land, the 25th–75th where half do. The probabilities are simply the fraction of members exceeding each total. None of it is a prediction of how much snow will fall — it is a statement about how much the models disagree, which at this range is the more useful thing to know. The snowfall being accumulated is each system's OWN snowfall field, taken from the provider as centimetres of snow and summed per member. It is not this library's wet-bulb phase logic, which is used on the shorter-range pages to decide where rain becomes snow and is applied nowhere on this page. What that means in practice is that the depth-to-water ratio here is the provider's fixed one, not a density that responds to the temperature of the storm, so these totals describe how much the members disagree rather than how deep the snow will lie. Every snowfall figure is accumulated over the comparison window chosen at the top of the page. In the common window all systems are truncated to the shortest usable valid-through and every percentile and probability is recomputed from the member series over that shared period — it is not a full-horizon number with its tail hidden. The temperature plume below each snowfall chart is built the same way from the same members, but it is the model-grid 2 m temperature: the value at the grid cell's own terrain height, not at a resort elevation, and not a wet-bulb temperature or snow level. It follows the same comparison window as the snowfall chart above it, because truncating a per-timestep plume simply stops it drawing and changes no value in it. The daily liquid-precipitation chances do NOT follow the window and always run to the system's own horizon: they are whole-calendar-day probabilities, and cutting one at 10:00 on its own last day would change what the number means. The snowfall chart can also draw every member's own accumulation as faint lines. They are all drawn identically on purpose — none is ranked, named or preferred, and none is the forecast. They are there only to show that the bands come from genuinely separated members. Those lines are plotted every six hours, matching each system's run cadence, while every total quoted on this page is accumulated over the full hourly series. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · NOAA GEFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain

GEPS 0.5°

Mt Baw Baw · 21 members · 0.5° ≈50 km

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–0 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 0 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 0 5 10 15 cm
0% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 12 Aug, 16:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-12T06:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and truncated to the comparison window rather than to this system's own horizon. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.4 to 9.4 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 9.9 to 11.7, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 9.0 to 13.8.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12010 °C

Cumulative snowfall Mt Baw Baw GEPS 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Middle half 0–0 cm · 10th–90th 0–0 cm
Cumulative provider snowfall across 21 GEPS members Accumulated from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep. By that time, the middle half of members give 0 to 0 cm, with a full spread of 0 to 0 cm. The percentile bands are the view; a control below the chart can additionally draw all 21 individual member accumulations as faint unranked lines, none of which is a forecast. Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 Mon 10 Tue 11 Wed 12 Thu 13 Fri 14 Sat 15 Sun 16 Mon 17 0 10 20 cm
0% reach 5 cm
0% reach 15 cm
0% reach 30 cm

2 m temperature 2 Aug, 10:00 → 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST

Model-grid 2 m temperature spread across 21 GEPS members Model-grid 2 m temperature at the GEPS 0.5° ≈50 km grid point — not resort-elevation temperature, not wet-bulb temperature, and not a snow level. Drawn from 2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-08-16T23:00:00.000Z, using at least 3 members at each timestep, and stopping where member data stops. At the start of that interval the middle half of members give 8.4 to 9.4 degrees Celsius; by the end they give 7.7 to 9.5, with a 10th-to-90th spread of 7.4 to 11.3.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9Mon 10Tue 11Wed 12Thu 13Fri 14Sat 15Sun 16Mon 17010 °C

Daily chance of ≥1 mm liquid own horizon

0% 08-0224% 08-0395% 08-0462% 08-0510% 08-060% 08-0714% 08-0876% 08-0952% 08-1038% 08-1138% 08-1262% 08-1352% 08-1438% 08-1538% 08-165% 08-17
Coverage and model limits

Actual member-data coverage. Snowfall Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; temperature Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; liquid precipitation Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST; snowfall water equivalent Sun, 2 Aug, 10:00 AEST to Mon, 17 Aug, 09:00 AEST. Percentiles and probabilities use at least 3 members per timestep; daily precipitation chances use only calendar days with at least 3 members reporting.

  • Global 0.5° grid (about 50 km) — the coarsest grid of the systems shown beside it; adjacent resorts routinely share one grid cell.
  • GEPS has 21 members (control + 20) and a 16-day, 3-hourly source horizon; Open-Meteo serves the requested point series hourly.
  • GEPS publishes off 00Z and 12Z, so a run more than six hours old is normal, not a missed cycle.