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Mt Baw Baw

ECMWF IFS · Mid · 1507 m 30.1 mm total 6.3 mm snow 22.2 mm uncertain 1.6 mm rain
ECMWF IFS · Mid · 1507 m 30.1 mm total 6.3 mm snow 22.2 mm uncertain 1.6 mm rain
ECMWF AIFS · Mid · 1507 m 17.9 mm total 1.8 mm snow 14.5 mm uncertain 1.6 mm rain
ECMWF AIFS · Mid · 1507 m 17.9 mm total 1.8 mm snow 14.5 mm uncertain 1.6 mm rain
GFS · Mid · 1507 m 31.6 mm total 9 mm snow 22.5 mm uncertain 0.1 mm rain
GFS · Mid · 1507 m 31.6 mm total 9 mm snow 22.5 mm uncertain 0.1 mm rain
ICON · Mid · 1507 m 10.5 mm total 1.8 mm snow 4.9 mm uncertain 3.8 mm rain
ICON · Mid · 1507 m 10.5 mm total 1.8 mm snow 4.9 mm uncertain 3.8 mm rain

VIC · 1450–1564 m

Below model terrain
Phase elevation
Primary precipitation
Add comparison tracks
Local-resolution reference

Snow level and precipitation

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Estimated snow level by model in metres above sea level, with selectable model precipitation beneath on the same time axis Wet-bulb-derived snow level from ECMWF IFS, ECMWF AIFS, GFS, ICON, plotted against the resort's elevation range. UKMO Global and JMA GSM are also plotted but hidden until switched on with the model legend above. Estimate mode continues sub-zero surface hours below model terrain using a lapse-rate estimate. Terrain upper bound mode stops those hours at the model terrain and leaves phase beneath unresolved. Precipitation colours and totals are evaluated at Mid · 1507 m. The selected precipitation model receives the strongest line emphasis; other models receive medium emphasis where their own precipitation is falling. The histogram beneath follows the page's selected precipitation model. Estimated snow level · metres AMSL Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 500 1000 1500 2000 base 1450 m top 1564 m Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 1000 1500 2000 base 1450 m top 1564 m 0 0.6 1.1 mm/h ECMWF IFS precipitation · phase at Mid · 1507 m 30.1 mm total 0 0.3 0.7 mm/h ECMWF AIFS precipitation · phase at Mid · 1507 m 17.9 mm total 0 1.9 3.9 mm/h GFS precipitation · phase at Mid · 1507 m 31.6 mm total 0 0.4 0.8 mm/h ICON precipitation · phase at Mid · 1507 m 10.5 mm total 0 1.1 2.1 mm/h UKMO Global precipitation · phase at Mid · 1507 m 47.3 mm total 0 0.3 0.5 mm/h JMA GSM precipitation · phase at Mid · 1507 m 11 mm total
ECMWF IFS 30.1 mm total Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 1.1 0 ECMWF AIFS 17.9 mm total Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 0.7 0 GFS 31.6 mm total Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 3.9 0 ICON 10.5 mm total Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 0.8 0 UKMO Global 47.3 mm total Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 2.1 0 JMA GSM 11 mm total Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 0.5 0 IFS 9 km surface; sampled -37.786, 146.265; model terrain 936 m; Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z IFS 9 km surface · unphased local reference 24.8 mm precip 1 mm native SWE Mon 3 Tue 4 Wed 5 Thu 6 Fri 7 Sat 8 Sun 9 1.5 0
snow uncertain rain 9 km reference · unphased
Snow-level method · experimental
ECMWF IFS
Estimated wet-bulb snow level — lowest wet-bulb zero (NBM definition), from 850/700/600/500 hPa above 982 m; resolved between 850 hPa and 700 hPa, 1548 m apart; 28 h estimated below model terrain at 6.5 °C/km
ECMWF AIFS
Estimated wet-bulb snow level — lowest wet-bulb zero (NBM definition), from 850/700/600/500 hPa above 982 m; resolved between 850 hPa and 700 hPa, 1552 m apart
GFS
Estimated wet-bulb snow level — lowest wet-bulb zero (NBM definition), from 900/850/800/700/600/500 hPa above 982 m; resolved between 900 hPa and 850 hPa, 459 m apart; 1 h estimated below model terrain at 6.5 °C/km
ICON
Estimated wet-bulb snow level — lowest wet-bulb zero (NBM definition), from 900/850/800/700/600/500 hPa above 982 m; resolved between 850 hPa and 800 hPa, 488 m apart
UKMO Global
Estimated wet-bulb snow level — lowest wet-bulb zero (NBM definition), from 900/850/800/700/600/500 hPa above 982 m; resolved between 850 hPa and 800 hPa, 485 m apart; 12 h estimated below model terrain at 6.5 °C/km
JMA GSM
Estimated wet-bulb snow level — lowest wet-bulb zero (NBM definition), from 850/700/600/500 hPa above 982 m; resolved between 850 hPa and 700 hPa, 1559 m apart
ECMWF IFS
Profile wet-bulb zero; hours already sub-zero at grid terrain stop there as an upper bound
ECMWF AIFS
Profile wet-bulb zero; hours already sub-zero at grid terrain stop there as an upper bound
GFS
Profile wet-bulb zero; hours already sub-zero at grid terrain stop there as an upper bound
ICON
Profile wet-bulb zero; hours already sub-zero at grid terrain stop there as an upper bound
UKMO Global
Profile wet-bulb zero; hours already sub-zero at grid terrain stop there as an upper bound
JMA GSM
Profile wet-bulb zero; hours already sub-zero at grid terrain stop there as an upper bound

Where the wet-bulb is already below zero at a model’s grid terrain, the continuous line extends downward using a 6.5 °C/km environmental lapse-rate estimate, with the uncertainty band widened across a 4.5–8.5 °C/km range. It is useful below-terrain guidance, not a model level directly resolved there.

Dashed sections stop at the model’s grid terrain. They are upper bounds: the wet-bulb zero is somewhere at or below that height, but this view does not estimate how far below. Phase below the bound remains uncertain.

The shaded band is a heuristic uncertainty around ECMWF IFS’s snow level. Each coloured snow-level line is emphasised where that model forecasts precipitation. The selected precipitation model receives the strongest emphasis because it also supplies the primary histogram and headline; other wet model lines remain medium-weight. Phase colours and totals here are judged at Mid · 1507 m.

Model-grid SWE is ECMWF IFS’s native sf field (parameter 144), expressed as liquid water equivalent at the model grid cell and its terrain. It is shown as an independent comparison: it does not alter the resort-elevation wet-bulb phase analysis and is not a settled-snow depth.

IFS 9 km surface is a separate native-resolution deterministic IFS surface sample. Its precipitation bars are intentionally unphased: this feed does not supply the pressure-level temperature/humidity profile used by the snow-level method. Native SWE is shown independently and does not alter the 25 km profile or ensemble products. Sampled cell -37.786, 146.265 · model terrain 936 m · Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z.

Model run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h ago · fetched 1 min ago

Calculation method

Snow level is the lowest height at which the model’s own WET-BULB temperature crosses 0 °C — the operational definition NOAA’s National Blend of Models uses. Above that height precipitation reaches the ground as snow; below it, it melts on the way down. The wet-bulb matters rather than the ordinary (dry-bulb) temperature because falling snow is cooled by its own evaporating meltwater: in dry air snow reaches the ground at air temperatures well above freezing, and a dry-bulb rule would call that rain. Wet-bulb is solved from the psychrometric equation at each level’s own pressure — evaporative cooling is stronger in thinner air, so a sea-level formula applied at 700 hPa reads too warm and pushes the snow level too high. The profile uses each model’s pressure-level temperature and humidity (ECMWF publishes 1000/925/850/700/600/500 hPa; GFS and ICON add 950/900/800) and only levels above the model’s own terrain, since lower ones lie inside the mountain. Where the wet-bulb is already below zero at that terrain there is no crossing to locate: the line continues below terrain using a 6.5 °C/km environmental lapse-rate estimate. These sections are lighter than crossings directly resolved between model levels, and their uncertainty spans 4.5–8.5 °C/km. The shaded band is a HEURISTIC uncertainty: assumed temperature errors propagated through the measured lapse rate. Its constants are our estimate, not a published figure, which is why each model’s disclosure also states the actual pressure levels its crossing was resolved between. Precipitation totals are millimetres of LIQUID EQUIVALENT, which is what the models publish — not a settled snow depth. We deliberately do not convert 1000–500 hPa thickness into metres: the textbook 5400 m rule is calibrated for the Northern Hemisphere and was out by more than a kilometre when checked against a real Australian snow event. Background

Weather data by Open-Meteo.com · ECMWF IFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0 · ECMWF AIFS — © ECMWF, licensed CC BY 4.0 · NOAA GFS — NOAA/NCEP, public domain · ICON — © Deutscher Wetterdienst, licensed CC BY 4.0 · © Crown Copyright, Met Office · © Japan Meteorological Agency

Model precipitation breakdown at Mid · 1507 m

Model comparison and run times

All precipitation amounts are mm liquid equivalent

These models are not on the same run. Their initialisation times differ by up to 6 h, so part of any difference you see below is lead time, not disagreement. Compare the shapes, not the hour-by-hour detail.

Model precipitation breakdown at Mid · 1507 m, in millimetres liquid equivalent
Model Model run Total Snow-phase Uncertain Rain Snow share State
ECMWF IFS Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h old 30.1 mm 6.3 mm 22.2 mm 1.6 mm 21% ok
ECMWF AIFS Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h old 17.9 mm 1.8 mm 14.5 mm 1.6 mm 10% partial
GFS Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h old 31.6 mm 9 mm 22.5 mm 0.1 mm 28% ok
ICON Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · 7 h old 10.5 mm 1.8 mm 4.9 mm 3.8 mm 17% ok
ACCESS-G Fri 27 Jun 2025 0400hrs AEST · 1800Z · 402 days old 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm — missing
UKMO Global Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h old 47.3 mm 3.1 mm 26.5 mm 17.7 mm 7% ok
JMA GSM Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · 13 h old 11 mm 3.1 mm 5.9 mm 2 mm 28% partial
  • ECMWF AIFS: missing variables: wind_gusts_10m — last run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z
  • ACCESS-G: provider returned no values for this model — last run Fri 27 Jun 2025 0400hrs AEST · 1800Z
  • JMA GSM: missing variables: wind_gusts_10m — last run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z
ECMWF IFS · Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z
Estimated snow level, ECMWF IFS 1000 2000
ECMWF AIFS · Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z
Estimated snow level, ECMWF AIFS 1000 2000
GFS · Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z
Estimated snow level, GFS 1000 2000
ICON · Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z
Estimated snow level, ICON 1000 2000
UKMO Global · Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z
Estimated snow level, UKMO Global 1000 2000
JMA GSM · Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z
Estimated snow level, JMA GSM 1000 2000
Forecast revisions Archived model runs, not accuracy or verification

This compares the latest two archived forecasts for each model using only their exact shared valid hours. Amounts are mm liquid equivalent. It shows how a forecast changed; it does not assess whether either forecast was correct.

ECMWF IFS

  • Latest · run Sun 2 1000hrs AEST · 0000Z · captured Sun 2 2248hrs AEST · 1200Z

History is still accumulating — one archived snapshot cannot show a revision yet.

ECMWF AIFS

  • Latest · run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · captured Sun 2 2248hrs AEST · 1200Z

History is still accumulating — one archived snapshot cannot show a revision yet.

GFS

  • Latest · run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · captured Sun 2 2248hrs AEST · 1200Z

History is still accumulating — one archived snapshot cannot show a revision yet.

ICON

  • Latest · run Sun 2 1600hrs AEST · 0600Z · captured Sun 2 2248hrs AEST · 1200Z

History is still accumulating — one archived snapshot cannot show a revision yet.

Detailed meteogram Temperature and wind per model

ECMWF IFS

Temperature and wind over 7 days Two metre temperature between -3 and 10 °C, with ten metre wind and gusts to 91 km/h.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 90510 Temperature °C at the model’s grid elevation — 0 °C dashed 50 Wind km/h — gusts dashed

ECMWF AIFS

Incomplete

Some of this run is missing. What is drawn is real; the gaps are gaps, not zeroes. (missing variables: wind_gusts_10m)

Temperature and wind over 7 days Two metre temperature between 1 and 11 °C, with ten metre wind and gusts to 0 km/h.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 90510 Temperature °C at the model’s grid elevation — 0 °C dashed 10 Wind km/h — gusts dashed

GFS

Temperature and wind over 7 days Two metre temperature between 0 and 11 °C, with ten metre wind and gusts to 64 km/h.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 90510 Temperature °C at the model’s grid elevation — 0 °C dashed 50 Wind km/h — gusts dashed

ICON

Temperature and wind over 7 days Two metre temperature between 2 and 11 °C, with ten metre wind and gusts to 147 km/h.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 9510 Temperature °C at the model’s grid elevation — 0 °C dashed 100 Wind km/h — gusts dashed

UKMO Global

Temperature and wind over 7 days Two metre temperature between -2 and 10 °C, with ten metre wind and gusts to 58 km/h.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 90510 Temperature °C at the model’s grid elevation — 0 °C dashed 50 Wind km/h — gusts dashed

JMA GSM

Incomplete

Some of this run is missing. What is drawn is real; the gaps are gaps, not zeroes. (missing variables: wind_gusts_10m)

Temperature and wind over 7 days Two metre temperature between 2 and 15 °C, with ten metre wind and gusts to 0 km/h.Mon 3Tue 4Wed 5Thu 6Fri 7Sat 8Sun 951015 Temperature °C at the model’s grid elevation — 0 °C dashed 10 Wind km/h — gusts dashed
Diagnostic comparison with provider freezing-level field · 1 model(s) diverge

This compares our dry-bulb freezing level against each model’s own published one — like against like. It checks the vertical profile the snow level is built on. It does not validate the snow level: no model here publishes a wet-bulb snow level to check against, and ECMWF IFS and AIFS publish no freezing level at all, so their profiles stand unchecked.

  • GFS: our freezing level tracks the model's own to within 300 m throughout (mean -9 m)
  • ICON: our freezing level departs from the model's own by up to 408 m — the profile here is coarse, so treat this model's snow level as indicative only (mean -12 m)
Source health · ACCESS-G currently unavailable
  • ACCESS-G — provider returned no values for this model. Last run Fri 27 Jun 2025 0400hrs AEST · 1800Z. Excluded from the plotted lines and from every precipitation total on this page. Current Bureau model charts remain available in the live ACCESS-G map viewer.
Model vertical resolution varies. Details

The snow level is interpolated between whichever pressure levels a model publishes above its own grid terrain. ECMWF IFS and AIFS publish 1000/925/850/700/600/500 hPa; GFS and ICON add 950/900/800. At an alpine grid point the 1000 and 925 hPa surfaces are underground and are discarded, which can leave an ECMWF crossing resting on the 850–700 hPa layer alone — roughly 1.5 km of vertical span. Each model’s actual bracket is stated in the primary panel’s own disclosure, and the uncertainty band widens to match.

Snow report · Webcams · Mt Baw Baw’s own pages — not forecast data