Event-total liquid precipitation
QPF comparison
Gauges: High Ridge (QPF-only) and Mount Hotham AWS.
| Model | High Ridge observed | High Ridge model | High Ridge error | Hotham observed | Hotham model | Hotham error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF IFS | 67.0 mm | 65.0 mm | -2.0 mm | 77.8 mm | 74.4 mm | -3.4 mm |
| ECMWF AIFS | 67.0 mm | 51.2 mm | -15.8 mm | 77.8 mm | 60.0 mm | -17.8 mm |
| GFS | 67.0 mm | 96.6 mm | +29.6 mm | 77.8 mm | 91.9 mm | +14.1 mm |
Dry / wet bias; near observed means within 3 mm.
Hotham phase and snow-water equivalent
Inferred phase; separate SWE diagnostics
Native model SWE is the model’s surface diagnostic. Implied SWE is model QPF × model phase at the station; the two are different diagnostics and are shown separately.
| Model | Observation-derived frozen fraction | Model frozen fraction | Observed estimated SWE | Model implied SWE | Native model SWE | Error cancellation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF IFS | 22% | 25%–38% | 17.0 mm | 18.4 mm–28.1 mm | 21.9 mm | No |
| ECMWF AIFS | 22% | 7%–32% | 17.0 mm | 3.9 mm–19.4 mm | 8.4 mm | Yes |
| GFS | 22% | 29%–64% | 17.0 mm | 26.2 mm–59.2 mm | 25.4 mm | No |
Native-cell terrain representation
Gauge and selected-cell elevations
| Gauge | Model | Instrument elevation | Selected cell elevation | Station − grid | Selected cell coordinates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Ridge | ECMWF IFS | 1600 m | 1137 m | +463 m | -37.2500, 146.5000 |
| Mount Hotham AWS | ECMWF IFS | 1849 m | 1444 m | +405 m | -37.0000, 147.2500 |
| High Ridge | ECMWF AIFS | 1600 m | 1137 m | +463 m | -37.2500, 146.5000 |
| Mount Hotham AWS | ECMWF AIFS | 1849 m | 1444 m | +405 m | -37.0000, 147.2500 |
| High Ridge | GFS | 1600 m | 1185 m | +415 m | -37.1949, 146.6016 |
| Mount Hotham AWS | GFS | 1849 m | 1334 m | +515 m | -36.9606, 147.1875 |
Provenance and limits
What this page can and cannot say
- High Ridge is QPF-only: it has no phase, observed SWE or attribution fields.
- Hotham phase is wet-bulb inferred, not directly measured.
- High Ridge WDO quality was A (qualifier 10); daily totals reconciled to 62.2 mm + 4.8 mm.
- All three forecasts use the exact historical initialization above. Gauge undercatch remains possible.
- One event cannot establish general model skill.
Static artifact provenance
Rendered from a compact committed subset of the retained result. Pilot result SHA-256: f855637a73aa1d38f1832d2bc3fe96a9eba129c0b3c08f7e2f11c2ed7fdb1267.